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Draft Recap and Bolts’ Free Agency Needs

As I am sure you know, the Lightning selected Modo defenceman Victor Hedman at the draft on Friday with the second overall pick. This was exactly what the Lightning needed to do and they also managed to trade up and get another first round pick. They used this pick to select Carter Ashton 29th overall, whom the felt was a steal because he was in their scouting’s top 20. I don’t have much to comment on these selections as I will have to wait and see them in action for the Lightning (Ashton likely in a couple years), but since the Lightning managed to get their guy in Hedman and also managed to keep captain Vinny Lecavalier, I would say we had a successful draft day.

In terms of Tampa Bay’s needs going into the 09-10 season, there are a few areas that still need to be addressed. I mentioned this in my post about goaltender Ramo leaving, but now the Lightning need to acquire an experienced NHL backup goaltender (my suggestion was Manny Legace). At forward, the Lightning now have 12 forwards who could potentially crack the line-up (after tendering an offer to Martins Karsums). However, I feel that the Lightning still need a top 6 forward, unless they feel that Steve Downie is ready to step up and fill that void. Otherwise, the Lightning have Lecavalier, St. Louis, Malone, Prospal, and Stamkos; and from there on, the list doesn’t contain someone I would consider a top 6 guy. My suggestion for a top 6 forward would be Brian Gionta. I also think the Lightning needs a skilled third line checking forward who is really good at his job. I would LOVE to see the Lightning sign Sammy Pahlsson because I love what he brings to the table.

However, the biggest concern again for the Lightning is their defence. A year has passed and the D is still a question mark for the Lightning, albeit less so than last year. The current defence depth chart for the Lightning looks like this:

-Meszaros (23)

-Ranger (24)

-Hedman (18)

-Mihalik (22)

-Wishart (21)

-Quick (21)

-*Krajicek (26)

-*Smaby (24)

-*Lashoff (22)

-*Lundin(24)

*made qualifying offer

That’s an average age of 22.5 between the defence. The average defenceman is in their prime in their late 20s, early 30s which leaves the Lightning defence corps still too young and inexperienced. They need either a big name veteran or even possibly an average, vocal veteran to stabilize the young blue line and give the younger guys more time to develop. The defenceman also has to have good breakout ability. One of Spacek, Morris, or Ohlund would be ideal in my opinion. That way the Lightning could potentially have a top 7 defence of Meszaros, Ranger, Hedman, “Veteran”, Smaby, and Lashoff, and Krajicek. I will be looking at the pick-ups made through free agency and see if it meets the needs that I brought up in this article. I also have a blog post coming up that brought me through torment as a Lightning fan to remember and really look closely at some facts. Stay tuned for more Bolts coverage!

My Thoughts on Vinny

This post is going to be a brief one, as I am not going to write about the countless Vincent Lecavalier trade rumours that have cropped up as the draft approaches. I will, however, make a bold prediction that is contrary to what I’ve heard from other reporters and bloggers. Unless the Islanders select Victor Hedman, the Lightning will NOT trade Vinny Lecavalier before July 1st. Don’t ask me how sure I am about this, this is simply my call on the situation. If the Islanders DO select Hedman, well, we have a different story. In that case, the Lightning will be forced to move one of their big names in pursuit of a very good blue-liner, and the only name who will get you someone big in return is Lecavalier. Otherwise, it is my belief that the Lightning will keep Lecavalier and try to build the team around him as they have done so often in the past. Trading Lecavalier may make more sense for the Lightning as far as purely hockey is concerned (if given the right deal), but from a dollars and cents perspective, he is too valuable to the franchise to be traded. However, this is all just one blogger’s opinion. If you have a different one or share mine, feel free to comment. I’d love to hear from ya!

Couple Crises Come at Worst Time for Lightning

A crisis can be defined as an unstable condition, involving an impending abrupt or decisive change; a turning point. As events have unfolded for the Lightning over the last couple days, that is exactly where they are: at a turning point. Recent reports concerning Lightning ownership claim the two major shareholders, Oren Koules and Len Barrie, have been feuding, mostly over financial concerns and the future direction of the team. A meeting with NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has brought peace between the two owners for now, placing the power for the final calls of the franchise in Oren Koules’ hands. Other reports are stating the two are mostly fighting with regards to whether or not to trade superstar Vincent Lecavalier, with Koules for trading him and Barrie against.

This rift between the two Lightning owners comes at a terrible time for Tampa Bay. With the draft coming this Friday, it is crucial that everyone in the organization is on the same page so that the team can execute a solid plan at the Entry Draft. So many possible moves are available to the Lightning on draft day and arguments or insecurities could result in the Lightning missing out on a big opportunity. Thankfully, Lightning GM Brian Lawton remains rather neutral through all this and insists that he is calling the shots. He alluded that the Lightning have plans in place and will stick with them regardless of this new development with the ownership. For the Lightning’s sake, I hope this is the case because this draft day will likely be one of the most important in team history.

Another crisis that struck the Lightning recently was the exodus of goaltender Kari Ramo to the KHL. Ramo has signed a two year contract with the option to opt out after the first year. This definitely puts a kink in the Lightning’s plans, as Ramo was almost certainly slotted to be the back-up goaltender for this year. Lightning GM Brian Lawton will likely have to search for a goaltender now in free agency to meet the team’s needs because neither Riku Helenius nor Mike McKenna proved they were ready for the back-up job. In the long run, I am not concerned about the Lightning’s depth in goal. With Helenius, McKenna, and Tokarski down the pipeline, the Lightning have plenty of good goalie prospects.

For the short term, I feel the Lightning should sign a back-up goalie. I believe that Manny Legace would be a fine candidate for the job. Many people give Legace a tough time after what happened in St. Louis, but his poor play was mostly the result of a major disagreement with the ownership, as they slowly replaced him with Chris Mason. However, even when Manny was sent down to the AHL, he proved he can still be competitive going 14-7-0-1 in 23 games with a GAA under 2.00 for the Peoria Rivermen. I credit Legace for continuing to play hard even through a rough patch in his career and definitely think he would be a fine addition to the Lightning, if they are a team he was interested in playing for. He is a goalie with a lot of experience and could serve as a mentor to Mike Smith and the other younger Lightning goalies. The other benefit of signing Legace would be that he would come at a very low price, which is something I am sure the Lightning is looking for.

With the Entry Draft coming soon, it will be interesting to see what the Lightning do with the many opportunities laid before them. I am working on another article for tomorrow night on what I think the Lightning will do regarding Vincent Lecavalier. Cheers!

Final Standings, Draft Pick and Other Things

And so the Lightning season has come to a close.  The team has finished second last and draft at number 2 in the 2009 Entry Draft this year.  Congrats to the 41% who guessed that the team would finish 29th on my poll in the last article!  At the time I was certain Colorado was going to finish beneath us, but we snuck by them.  There really isn’t much to say about us picking second overall; the choice should be a no-brainer.  Assuming the Islanders draft John Tavares, the Lightning have a perfect fit in the cornerstone defenseman, Victor Hedman.  I believe he will be able to contribute to the team right away and for many, many years to come.  Should the Islanders pick Hedman first overall, then the Lightning should simply pick John Tavares and even if they don’t use him, he will have MASSIVE trade value.  The NHL Entry Draft is June 26th at 7PM Eastern Time.

I don’t want to continue to write blogs that dwell on this season for the Lightning, because it is a season I would very much like to forget.  However, come June 26th and onwards, I shall be providing my views on different Lightning acqusitions (whether by draft, trade, or free agency).  I plan on writing a blog article around the third round of the playoffs about the final four teams in contention (any sooner and most of it becomes speculation).  Until then, enjoy watching the playoffs and hold strong for June 26th Lightning fans!!

And Then There Were Five

As the Bolts enter the final stretch of five games and bring another early end to Lightning hockey in Tampa Bay this year, there is only one thing left for fans of the team to be hopeful for: a good draft pick.  The Lightning head into tonight’s game against New Jersey ranked 28th in the league with 65 points.  They are just one ahead of Colorado in 29th and six ahead of the Islanders in 30th.  This is a list of all the teams who could potentially crack the bottom five and challenge for the lottery pick:

1. New York Islanders – 59P/5GR

2. Colorado Avalanche – 64P/5GR

3. Tampa Bay Lightning – 65P/5GR

4. Atlanta Thrashers – 72P/5GR

5. Los Angeles Kings - 73P/5GR

6.  Phoenix Coyotes - 75P/4GR

7. Ottawa Senators – 76P/5GR

8. Toronto Maple Leafs – 77P/5GR

9. Dallas Stars – 78P/4GR

*Updated as of:  12:30AM, April-03-09

As you can see, the likelihood is that the Lightning will finish somewhere in the bottom five; the question though, is where?  The Thrashers have a solid 7 point lead on the Lightning and we would need to see some pretty impressive hockey on the Bolts’ side to see anything close to a catch-up.  On the lower front, Colorado has been particularly awful as of lately losing 8 in a row and the Islanders have Tavares in their headlights and don’t appear to be straying from the course.  My guess is that the Lightning stay put in their third spot and, though they have a chance of winning the lottery, there’s a better chance they will draft exactly where they finish, at third as well. 

So, if the Lightning do draft third, who do they pick (let’s assume Tavares and Hedman are gone; in that order)? Three nhl.com draft experts made predictions for who the Lightning would draft (if given the 3^rd position).  Two of these experts pegged the Lightning to pick Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, a talented Swedish winger.  The other predicted they would pick Evander Kane who is a smallish, but defensively responsible, gritty forward.  Personally, I do not agree with any of these picks, unless these experts are of the believe that the Lightning plan on trading some of their talent up front for defensive help.  I think the team should draft to build its future on the blue-line by choosing the Canadian, 6-5, 218 pound defenseman, Jared Cowen.  He is exactly what the Lightning need:  a good puck moving defenseman and a guy who plays smart, defensive, disciplined hockey.  That is just my opinion on who we should draft at 3^rd spot, what do you guys think?

Here is a quick look at the Lightning’s last 5 games and their current records against those teams this season:

@ New Jersey:  0-1-2

@ New York Islanders:  1-1-1

Home vs. Pittsburgh:  1-1-1

Home vs. Washington:  0-5-0

@Atlanta:  2-2-1

Out of these fives games, I wouldn’t mind a win at home against Washington, so that we are not swept by them this season and to harm the positioning of a division rival.  Remember to cast your vote on the quick poll below!  Until next time, go Bolts!!

A Look at the Projected 2009-2010 Tampa Bay Lightning – Part 2

So, this blog entry is sort of a continuation of the last one.  In the last blog I mentioned players the Lightning have under contract next season and players who I think they should resign.  In this blog I am going to look at what the Lightning line-up next season would be if it ONLY had players from this year’s team who are signed or could be resigned next season. Then I will discuss the weaknesses and strengths of this line-up.

Line-up with Only Signed/Re-signed Players:

Forwards:

Prospal – Lecavalier – St. Louis

Malone – Stamkos – Downie

Szczechura – Halpern – Karsums

Smolenak – Craig – Artyukhin

Spares: Hall, Konopka

*If the Lightning are going to keep Vinny Lecavalier, then they need to reunite the MVP line next season and they need results from the line.  Without this line playing like a number one line, the team is going to have trouble winning games next season (like this season).  I think a second line with Malone, Stamkos, and Downie would be really good if Downie and Stamkos continue with the good chemistry that was developing between the pair.  Malone helps that line because he is someone who will go into the corners and get them the puck and he can finish plays too.  This line only works if Steve Downie can get his act together and stay in the NHL, without any more of his shenanigans.  Our third line could either be very good or very weak depending on the play of Szczechura and Karsums.  If those two perform well at the NHL level next season, I think we have a strong third line there.  I would ultimately like to see Artyukhin be on a higher line, but until he works on his hands, he is only useful as a fourth line/energy type of player.  I think the Lightning could use an experienced right winger for Stamkos.  Possibilities include: Mikael Samuelsson (Detroit), Ales Kotalik (Edmonton), or Petr Sykora (Pittsburgh), all of whom become free agents this summer and would come at a fairly reasonable price for the experience they would bring to young Steven.*

Defence:

Meszaros – Ranger

Smaby – Lashoff

Lundin – Murphy

Spare: Mihalik

*This defence, even with the possibility of adding Victor Hedman, still looks weak.  Just like the defence from the start of this season (and we all saw how well that worked out), this D-core looks really inexperienced.  Meszaros and Ranger are definite staples in the defence, and I certainly like what I’ve seen from Matt Smaby this year, who I think could fill a #3-4 role after a bit more development.  Again, this defence is sorely lacking veteran leadership.  Whether the Lightning get a veteran defenceman to fill a #2-3 spot, or a #4-5, it will make a HUGE difference for the young D-core and will help speed up their development. Possibilities include: Francois Beauchemin (Anaheim), Mike Komisarek (Montreal), Johnny Oduya (New Jersey), Derek Morris (New York Rangers), and Mattias Ohlund (Vancouver).  These defenceman all become free agents this summer and many of them play for teams that may not be able to afford to resign them (especially Beauchemin, Morris, and Ohlund).  Now, acquiring any one of these defenceman will not come cheap, but if the Lightning plan on doing any spending this summer, the area they need to spend the most on is the defence.  I think the addition of one or possibly two of these D-men would really help bring experience to an inexperienced line-up.*

Goalies:

Smith – Ramo

*To be honest, I think we’re pretty set in goal.  My only concern is if Smith will be able to recover fully from this concussion injury. If he is unable to play for some reason, my faith in Ramo as a #1 goalie is not 100%, that’s for sure.  We also have some pretty good prospects in the system (like young Tokarski), but not many ready for NHL action should Smith be unable to play.  I would play the tandem of Smith and Ramo, allowing Smith to play as many games as he can to try and get his game back.*

Well, this concludes my look at the possible upcoming Lightning line-up for 2009 and the improvements that I think could be made.  Feel free to comment and post you own predictions for line combinations or free agents that you would like to see the Bolts acquire.  As a quick preview of my next blog topic, I will be discussing the Lightning as they head into the final 5 games of the season, where I think we will end up, and who we should draft.  Until then, cheers!